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November 4, 2008 - 7:14am
Inside Edge
Two best managers of this cycle in the same race?
By Wally EdgeAn easy argument could be made that the two best run campaigns and the two best campaign managers this cycle were both in the same congressional district running against each other. Democratic challenger Bob Lord with his campaign manager Andrew Eldredge-Martin have run a close to flawless campaign. If there was a better managed and run campaign in the state this year it may have been John Shadegg and his manager Sean Noble.
Both managers are veterans and well respected by their piers. Lord and Eldredge-Martin had a very tough uphill battle to fight. Lord faces a serious registration disadvantage and is running against a Congressman, who for years, has been very popular among his constituents. No candidate has been able to raise any serious money against Shadegg in the past and Lord was able to do just that. The campaigns strength has been their ability to attract national attention, raise money and make people think it is a winnable race. If the campaign had a weak point it was probably overplaying and taking out of context the "Washington changed us" quote from Shadegg. Shadegg was known by the people in AZ-3 and they did not believe that.
Shadegg's campaing ran a classic incumbent race for a district that has a strong registration advantage. Shadegg kept putting money in the bank and keeping a 2:1 money advantage over his challenger. He always kept Lord at an arms length and stayed on message. Shadegg gives the "I am one of you" impression to people he meets and his constituents get that. If the campaign had a weakness they could change it may be the early television ads. They were not strong and the videography was poor. Also Shadegg could have hammered harder the "Lord as a liberal we cannot trust" message.
If Lord loses he can look at the district and realize it was not a good district for him. He may be an attractive state-wide candidate down the road though. If Shadegg loses he can look to an ugly anti-Republican environment and know there was nothing he could really do to change that. Either way both campaigns were well run, both candidates were well prepared and both teams can hang their head high no matter the results.
Could we see a rematch down the road with a Shadegg v. Lord for U.S. Senate race in 2010?
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Shadegg Beats Lord by almost
Shadegg Beats Lord by almost 12 points despite $4million being dropped to defeat him.
Game Over. Nuff said.
Results matter.
And you're both wrong about the commercials. May not have been my favorites, but ask a moderate female voter above 30 what some of their favorite commercials were of the cycle and I guarantee you at least one of Shadegg's commercials will be mentioned in their list.
This is the most ridiculous
This is the most ridiculous thing I've ever read on Politicker and makes me think that "Wally Edge" doesn't know a thing about campaigns. These were, BY FAR, the two worst run campaigns in Arizona that have a chance of winning.
As the above poster said, neither campaign had any field presence until the very end. And while, yes, signs don't vote, why in the world didn't Lord have an early sign presence to raise his name ID? He was a first time candidate!!! And yes, Holy Lord, were those Shadegg ads awful.
For a comparison, look at the Mitchell campaign in CD5 or the Giffords campaign in CD8. Clearly Wally hasn't chosen to leave the city of Phoenix to see how a real campaign is run.
Wally off the edge?
How about the two worst managers of the cycle?
Let's take each of their mistakes in turn, which no experienced manager, let alone the best, would ever do.
NOBLE
Shadegg's ads talking to the camera were the most poorly produced I have seen at the Federal level. There was no messaging at all.
Shadegg didn't raise enough money. Shadegg could have avoided being outspent, even including the DCCC money, if he had fundraised like a guy who knew he was in trouble.
Shadegg never fully mobilized for war. Sorry, but there should have been walks and phone banks every day and solid sign coverage throughout the entire summer.
Shadegg made numerous rookie mistakes. Why did deputy campaign manager Ryan Anderson lie about his name at a Democratic field HQ while buying an Obama sticker? The whole situation was just weird and generated a negative news cycle when one wasn't needed. His response to the veteran who demanded that he be removed from his ad was so smarmy it made me, and anyone who read the story, sick.
The campaign was cocky, complacent, and when it did finally engage, did so poorly.
LORD
No field organization of any sort for most of the campaign. Signs should have been up and everywhere starting on the first day they legally could.
Lots of money just wasted. Read his FEC reports.
Lord has been a phenomenal candidate, especially for his first outing. He has been an amazing fundraiser, even for a state when the bar has been set pretty low. He's created a competitive race where NOBODY thought it was possible.
But the reasons he is in the race, and may win today; fundraising, excellent messaging, great commercial production and placement, have much more to do with the finance team , the candidate, and the media consultants than the manager. (I realize that I blamed Noble for failures in several of these areas above. The reason is simple: having worked with Sean on numerous races, and being familiar with Shadegg Inc., it's clear that Sean calls ALL of the shots when it comes to campaigns).
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