Bruce Merrill

There is good news for Maricopa County sheriff candidate Dan Saban, according to a recent poll conducted on behalf of his campaign, which shows the Democrat leading incumbent sheriff Joe Arpaio among "new" voters - those who haven't cast a ballot before.

"In a telephone survey conducted October 24-30, 54 percent of newly registered voters preferred Dan Saban over the Republican incumbent," read the memo from the Saban campaign. "Only 31.7 percent said they would vote for Arpaio and 14.3 percent were still undecided."

The poll was conducted among 454 active registered voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percent, the release says.

These numbers present a sharp contrast with the poll conducted by notable public opinion researcher Bruce Merrill, whose survey for Arizona State University and Arizona PBS affiliate KAET showed Saban trailing Arpaio by 21 points among all registered voters, 56 to 35.

A poll from Arizona State University's Cronkite School of Journalism and KAET/Eight, the Arizona PBS station, shows incumbent Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas leading Democrat Tim Nelson by seven points, 42 to 35, with 21 percent of voters still undecided.

"With the sampling error for the Maricopa County sample of 574 registered voters at plus or minus 4 percent, the race for county attorney is a statistical dead heat," read the memo accompanying the poll.

Michael Kielsky, the Libertarian candidate in the race, polled at two percent in the survey conducted Oct. 20-22. 

The new Cronkite/Eight poll out Tuesday evening shows Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) trailing Sen. John McCain of Arizona by two points, 44 to 46. Since the margin of error is plus or minus three points, the race is a statistical tie in Arizona.

That two-point margin "makes the race too close to call," according to the memo released with the findings. Bruce Merrill, who conducted the poll for Arizona State University's Cronkite School of Journalism and local PBS affiliate KAET/Eight, said the race is "very close."

"Supporters of both candidates are highly committed to their candidates," said Merrill in the release, "with 94 percent of Obama’s supporters and 93 percent of McCain’s supporters indicating that they are firmly committed and won’t change their mind before Election Day. In addition, the undecided vote is very low, which means that there are few people remaining to be persuaded during the last week of the campaign."

Arizona State University pollster Bruce Merrill, who conducts the Cronkite/Eight poll on behalf of the univeristy and Arizona's PBS station, KAET, will release the results of his latest survey at 7 p.m. Tuesday, but those privy with the results say it will show a close race between U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Arizona's senior senator John McCain (R-Phoenix) in McCain's home state.

"It's within a couple of points," said one attendee of a speech Merrill gave Tuesday when he discussed the results.

The full results won't be publicly available until Merrill announces his findings on KAET/Eight at 7 p.m. Also polled were the races for Maricopa County attorney and sheriff, as well as Proposition 105, which would require a majority of registered voters to pass any ballot initiative, rather than a majority of those who actually vote.

A Cronkite-Eight poll released Tuesday night shows a tightening presidential race in Arizona, as well as a slight lead for an amendment to define marriage as between one man and one woman, and overwhelming support for a proposition that modifies sanctions on employers who hire illegal workers.

According to the poll, conducted by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at Arizona State University and KAET Eight, Sen. John McCain (R-Phoenix) now leads Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) by 45 percent to 38 percent. With just over 1 percent going to third party candidates, over 16 percent of the electorate remains undecided.

The last Cronkite-Eight poll, released Aug. 19, had McCain leading by 10 points over Obama, 40 to 30.  

Bruce Merrill, who oversaw the poll, said Arizona has shifted from a solidly Republican state in the presidential race to one "in which the Democrats may choose to actively campaign."

A new Cronkite/Eight poll released Tuesday shows Sen. John McCain (R-Phoenix) holds a ten-point lead over Democratic opponent U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in Arizona. However, McCain still only currently garners 40 percent of the vote, while 30 percent goes to Obama and 28 percent remain undecided.

Those numbers are little changed from a Cronkite/Eight poll conducted in late June, which also showed McCain leading Obama by 10 points, only with 34 percent undecided. 

As quoted in the Arizona Capitol Times, Bruce Merrill, the Arizona State University professor who directed the poll, said:

"McCain maintains his lead in Arizona mainly because evangelicals and conservative Democrats are disproportionately supporting him. The McCain campaign also appears to have successfully created a fairly strong anti-Obama sentiment in the state."