Rumors persist around Konopnicki

Almost a month after State Representative Bill Konopnicki announced he would not seek the open CD1 seat, rumors continue to swirl that the NRCC is continuing to look for Konopnicki to enter. 

Conservative activist Sydney Hay has been in the race since the beginning and is lining up support from many grassroots conservative activists.  Hay, although quiet in the press, has been working hard to line up worker bees that will give her a formidable grassroots organization. 

Two weeks ago, Corporations Commissioner Kris Mayes entered the race with the political backing of Matt Salmon and the financial support of Malcom Barrett.  Mayes looked to be the person to beat on the Republican side. 

So with Mayes entering the race, why would the NRCC or any other Republican organization look for Konopnicki to get back into the mix?  Nationally, the Republicans see this as a key seat to hold if they wish to hold their current 198 seats or even gain seats. They do not think a conservative such as Hay can win this seat.  One prominent Arizona Republican told us if Hay is the nominee the NRCC is committed to placing their limited financial resources in other seats.  If Mayes is the nominee she could be expected to receive support as long as she stayed competitive in fundraising.

Arizona Republicans see Mayes as a much stronger general election candidate, but first she needs to make it to the general election.  In a crowded primary Mayes may have an advantage, but in a one-on-one match up against Hay the road becomes much tougher.  CD1 leaders are concerned that this will be a race for Hay to paint as a conservative vs. a moderate Republican. 

While the electorate in CD1 may not be as conservative as other parts of the state, the primary voting Republicans will be conservative.  Hay also will point out to those conservative primary voters that Mayes has a long record of supporting Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano and question whether that is someone you want representing you in Washington. 

While the Republican leaders know Mayes is their best chance to win the seat in the general election, they are not fooled into thinking the primary will be a cake walk.  This is the main reason rumors continue to persist about Konopnicki re-entering the race.  Konopnicki would be a strong candidate in both the primary and general election. 

It usually comes back to money, and it appears this is the case here.  Konopnicki also has something the cash-poor NRCC would love to see, the ability to self-fund.  But just because Konopnicki has the ability to self-fund, doesn’t mean he wants to spend $2 million to win a seat that pays $180k a year.  As one state representative close to Konopnicki said, he did not become financially successful by wasting money in bad business deals.  It appears Konopnicki would have entered the race if he could have received a financial commitment from the NRCC, but the NRCC who ended 2007 at a 7-to-1 disadvantage to the DCCC in cash on hand was not in any position to make promises. 

Don’t look for Konopnicki to throw his hat into the ring this time.  Now the focus will turn completely to Mayes.  Will Mayes be able to overcome the Napolitano stigma with primary voting Republicans?  Having Matt Salmon, who Mayes trashed during the Salmon and Napolitano gubernatorial camping, on her side may help, but will it be enough?