January 18, 2008 - 1:54pm
Knaperek leads Mitchell according to internal poll
By Wally EdgeLaura Knaperek's campaign released to us results from an internal poll that showed Knaperek leading incumbent freshman Democrat Harry Mitchell. The poll shows Knaperek leading Mitchell 36%-35% in the hypothetical match-up.
The poll was conducted among 300 likely voters with 52% Republican, 31% Democrat and 16% Independent/Other. The margin of error is +/-6%
On the generic ballot for Congress 44% said they would vote for a Republican, 35% Democrat while 21% were undecided.
They asked how Harry Mitchell is doing on his new job. 41% approved or strongly approved of the job he was doing, 34% had no opinion while 12% disapproved or strongly disapproved.
The campaign then tested Knaperek and David Schweikert against Mitchell
Knaperek 36.33%
Mitchell 35.67%
Undecided 27%
Schwiekert 27%
Mitchell 37.33%
Undecided 34.33%
The results have to be encouraging Knaperek and her campaign that this is a winnable race. The one thing I did notice in the sample was 52% of the participants were Republicans. The voter registration for the 5th Congressional District is 43% Republican, 29% Independents and 27% Democrats. The Knaperek campaign say the model was developed off of past election results where they say the average voter turnout was 50%.
Knaperek will be holding her official kick-off on Saturday, Feb. 2nd from 10am-12pm at her house, 2028 E Carmen, Tempe AZ 85283.
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I had tried Vitamin E oil
I had tried Vitamin E oil and cocoa butter which a number of people had recommended but it didn't seem to work.
Polish this report
NIce report Davey. 250,000 from a mortgage, 30k+ from "time and supplies". Sounds like someone polished his numbers.
atleast
Schweikert wont have to worry about losing to Mitchell, because he wont have the chance. He wont be able to get out of the primary. I say he comes in 3rd(again) or fourth.
polishing a turd?
So let me get this straight- a sample of a 300 people, not chosen randomly, picked Knaperek by .6% with a margin of error +/- of a whopping 6 percentage points? And Knaperek is boasting about this poll? In a district of around 700,000 people? And what part of the district did this poll measure?
Oh, one could also find fault with the oversampled Republican population. The Republican edge in the district isn't 21% as represented here, it's actually about 16%. I guess Knaperek can flush that .6% right down the toilet.
It is nice of her however to let Mitchell know that he would beat Schweikert by 10 points. Hey, isn't that what Mitchell beat Knaperek by when he whomped her in 2002?
Haven't we seen this movie before?
So generically, 44% would vote for a Republican, but only 36% would vote for Knaperek? Meanwhile 35% would vote for a Democrat but 36% would vote for Mitchell? Sounds about right... Mitchell holds his base and then some, while Knaperek bleeds votes from her base. That is how she lost to Mitchell before!
Great news
I am not surprised. Knaperek has always been a strong conservatve leader in her community. She has what it takes to beat Mitchell and the field of Republicans running for the seat.
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