The race to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Flagstaff) is tilting away from the Republican Party, according to The Cook Political Report.

The non-partisan Washington tip sheet Thursday moved the 1st Congressional District race into its "Lean Democratic" category from "Toss Up."

A little less than a month before the primaries, Cook foresees a general election showdown between Democratic state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick and Republican Sydney Hay.

Cook's conclusion:

McCain's presence atop the ballot should help Republicans across the board in Arizona, but Democrats may hold the megaphone in this expensive district covered by the Phoenix media market. The lingering taste of the Renzi land deal fiasco may have also soured voters on congressional Republicans here.

Some Republicans privately concede that Kirkpatrick is a good fit for this district and that the GOP may not have the money to help Hay counter a barrage of Democratic ads. But the bottom line may be that Democrats got their top choice to run here and Republicans did not. This seat moves to the Lean Democratic column.