Hay internal shows 'winnable race' against Kirkpatrick
By Evan Brown, PolitickerAZ.com ReporterAn study conducted on behalf of the Sydney Hay congressional campaign shows a "close and winnable race" for the Republican contender in the 1st Congressional District, according to a memo from Washington, D.C.-based polling firm Wilson Research Strategies.
Though the Hay campaign hasn't divulged the figures associated with the poll, they did release a copy of the memo summarizing the findings to PolitickerAZ.com.
"Sydney Hay has made strong gains since our initial study one month ago," the memo read. "[Democratic nominee Ann] Kirkpatrick’s current advantage is primarily due to a name ID advantage acquired as a result of a more active Democratic primary campaign. Once the general election campaign begins we expect both the name ID gap and the ballot gap to close quickly."
Wilson Research Strategies concluded:
"Sydney Hay has already made strong strides in this race. The generic ballot and issue inventory indicate a race that will close further once the general election campaign begins in earnest and Hay introduces herself to voters and closes the name ID gap with Kirkpatrick. We expect this to be a close race where Hay has a real opportunity to hold a critical seat for Republicans."
When asked for the specific figures supporting those conclusions, Roy Tyler, spokesman for the Hay campaign, told PolitickerAZ.com that they were keeping them under wraps. "Why should Ann Kirkpatrick see numbers that could help her?" said Tyler. "We paid for [the poll], and we're going to use it ourselves."
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veritas is rightous!
Kirkpatrick will take this seat by 6-8 points.
Its the swing that matters in CD-1
The swing in CD-1 are the Mary-Kim crowd and the Livingstone folks. The race outcome depends on how Sydney and Ann can appeal to these voters. This is a sizable block of voters.
Sidney Hay, don't worry
Sidney Hay, don't worry about November. CD1 was so rigged in the Democratic Primaries that it was so obvious. Mary Kim and Kirpatrick put together won't even win the race. Sidney Hays, good luck, and you might want to think of making frybread with the NAVAJOS because thats the way mary kim won, and don't forget to remember the definition for Emminent Domain. You might just have to watch the numbers in Navajo and Apache County!
Carpetbaggers need not apply
Sydney's problem in 2002 is the same problem that will defeat her in 2008: She can't unite the District. Heck, she can't unite anything. Ever since the dawn of the 21st Century Sydney's been running for this seat. For starters she's never lived in the District and that's a biggie with a lot of folks in CD-1. If the Republicans loose to the Dems in November it'll be because no one wants Sydney Hay as their Congressperson.
Beltway Hay
Sydney has no qualifications per se. Her 'experience' is about as puffed up as a marketing consultant can push it.
Without twisting someone's arm to invoke Rule 11a, effectively eliminating any fair primary election, Sydney would have lost.
If this is an example of Hays' way, she'll fit right into the Beltway.
Purple koolaid drinkers
What DO you people drink and smoke to come up with these lame brain conspiracy theories?
If we lose the District to the Dems, its because Livingstone sold the otherwise good and thoughtful people of District 1 a bill of goods about her qualifications. District 1 Republicans need to come together and Livigstone needs to gracefully consede.
Republicans to eat Hay this holiday season
Willy's right. Sydney, her hubby and hubby's employer will all share the blame when AzCD-1 goes from Red to Blue this November.
But remember, the heil Kyl Club doesn't care. They intentionally let Giffords win down Tucson way and JD Hayworth get the boot too.
What matters is I*M*M*I*G*R*A*T*I*O*N the way the present RNC and Administration want it (in other words, Amnesty)
Sydney knows nearly nothing about NAFTA, Immigration, Forestry and a host of other key issues. A perfect candidate for the powers that be. Like Renzi, Sydney will pull in the earmarks for the district while avoiding actually doing anything to change the status quo. And like Renzi, Sydney will be a "babysitter" or caretaker beholding to her superiors like Kyl.
WRS is a paid polling group, and any consultant worth their salt you bet is going to spin the data in favor of their client.
Now, look carefully at the margins between Kirtpatrick's win and Sydney's win. Then look at the number of Republican voters Sydney failed to energize.
Hay is this season's Thanksgiving turkey. Margin? Put me down for the Dems by 8 points or better.
HAY HAY HAY GOODBYE
Sidney Hay is going to be trounced by Kirkpatrick. The only hope for the Republicans was Livingstone and they blackballed her. Trent Franks has only himself (and Sidney Hays husband) to blame for losing this seat to the Democrats.
"Why should Ann Kirkpatrick
"Why should Ann Kirkpatrick see numbers that could help her?" said Tyler.
Do they really think Ann doesn't have her own numbers?
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