AZ-3 candidates see 2nd quarter numbers as vital

U.S. Rep. John ShadeggA looming close to the 2nd quarter reporting period (totals are due at midnight, June 30) means congressional candidates making a final push to ramp up their takes. The 3rd Congressional District race, which pits incumbent U.S. Rep. John Shadegg (R-Phoenix) against Democratic attorney Bob Lord, is no exception.

The candidates are symmetrical in their arguments. Both Lord and Shadegg paint the other as beholden to the establishment of his party, and both argue they need funds to counter attacks the other will mount.

A money pitch from the Bob Lord campaign read:

"My most critical fundraising deadline is Monday, June 30. Another $5,000 will go a long way towards helping me fight back against whatever mud gets thrown at me. When John Shadegg retired, it was the siren song of special interests that pulled him back into the race, and they will go to any length to make sure money will be no object for their favorite water carrier."

So far, Shadegg isn't concentrating on Lord himself. Indeed, he has to date staunchly refused to even mention Bob Lord by name in any of his messages to supporters. For example, in Shadegg's most recent call for donations, Lord was only referred to as the "chosen candidate" of the "Democrat Party establishment."

"The Democrat Party establishment is pulling out all the stops this election cycle and has gotten behind their chosen candidate in an effort to push their liberal agenda in Arizona. This includes the national Democrat's negative attack machine that is attempting to distort Congressman John Shadegg's consistent conservative voting record...

"Simply put, if the Democrat Party establishment is successful, Nancy Pelosi could have another liberal vote in the U.S. House of Representatives for her agenda.

"That is why we need your help and financial support before the June 30th Federal Election Commission's filing deadline. Since the Democrat establishment has put so much effort into supporting their candidate, this report will be looked at closely as an important milestone in this election."

If last quarter's results are any indication, the emphasis the candidates are putting on 2Q totals is not misplaced. Lord managed to outraise Shadegg by $70,000 at the beginning of the year, and as a direct consequence his campaign has been given a higher priority by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, bringing financial and organizational support to the first-time candidate's congressional bid. A similar showing by Lord could boost his chances against Shadegg, a visible and long-serving incumbent.

Conversely, if Shadegg were to outraise Lord significantly in the 2nd quarter, it could erase the gains Lord has made against him and cool the enthusiasm of the DCCC for his candidacy.