Cook downgrades Shadegg's re-election to 'likely'

Cook Political Report has shifted the 3rd Congressional District race from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican," following the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's addition of challenger Bob Lord to its Red to Blue program.

Lord is facing incumbent U.S. Rep. John Shadegg (R-Phoenix) in a fight for the 3rd District, where Republican registration outstrips Democratic by a significant margin. However, after Lord's strong fundraising totals and Shadegg's decision to leave the race, which he reversed two weeks later, many, including Cook, see a possibility for Lord to pull an upset.

According to Cook, Lord's "strong fundraising and Shadegg's hesitancy to announce reelection plans" got the attention of the DCCC. In May, DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) appeared with Lord in Phoenix to show his support for the first-time candidate, and now, with Lord on the Red to Blue list, the challenger has some potentially serious financial backing as well.

In 2006, Red to Blue offered financial and organizational aid to Democratic House candidates and is credited with helping Democrats regain the majority in the House. This year, Lord and Ann Kirkpatrick, who is running to replace U.S. Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Flagstaff) in the 1st Congressional District, were put on the list. The 1st District is currently listed as a "toss up" by Cook.

"We have known this has been a competitive race from the start," said Lord in a statement, "and we have been talking to voters about the change we need in Washington."