Mitchell well ahead of GOP rivals in new poll

Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-5)So far so good for Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-5). Mitchell, the freshman congressman who four Republican contenders are in a spirited contest to face in November, has outraised his opponents substantially, ending the first quarter of the year with more cash on hand than all of them combined.

Now a new poll indicates that whoever becomes the Republican nominee will not have an easy time unseating Mitchell.

According to the American Hospital Association's survey, conducted March 9-11 of this year among 400 likely voters, Mitchell holds a commanding lead over two of the four Republican contenders: former State House Majority Leader and Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, and former State Rep. Laura Knaperek.

In a head-to-head matchup, Mitchell takes 50 percent of the vote as opposed to Schweikert's 23 percent. Knaperek is closer, but not by much - she loses to Mitchell 49 to 26. The difference in both totals is comprised of undecided voters: 26 percent are undecided between Mitchell and Schweikert, while 25 percent couldn't choose between Mitchell and Knaperek.

Given that, as recently as today, pundits had pegged Schweikert as the frontrunner, Knaperek outperforming him is surprising - though the difference is within the +/- 4.9 percent marign of error. Also, it's possible that the landscape has changed since the poll was conducted over a month ago.

It is also interesting to note that neither Jim Ogsbury nor State Rep. Mark Anderson (R-Mesa) were included in the poll, despite having already entered the race well before the time it was conducted.

However, it is clear that Democrat Harry Mitchell still retains a high degree of popularity in a district where registered Republicans have a 3-2 advantage over Democrats.