Poll: McCain's lead slipping in home state

A Rocky Mountain Poll released Friday showed U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Phoenix) leading his presumptive opponent, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), in Arizona, but not by as much as he was earlier in the campaign for the White House.

The poll said that in a survey of 401 voters in Maricopa County, 43 percent said they supported McCain, while 38 percent planned to vote for Obama. McCain’s lead in a poll conducted in May was 53 percent to 38 percent.

With a 5-percent margin for error, Obama is within striking distance in McCain’s home state, pollsters said.

In a statement released with the survey, the poll’s sponsor – the Behavior Research Center – attempted to explain the results:

“McCain’s narrowing lead traces not to any sudden up-swelling in support for Obama, whose support has hovered around 38 percent for the past year and remains at that level today.

“Rather, it traces to a decline in support of McCain, especially among men, registered Independents and Latinos. Simultaneously, the proportion of voters who are uncommitted rose to 16 percent from only nine this May and Ralph Nader drew a small but important three percent, mostly from McCain.

“The most obvious explanation for the tightening up of the race is that for the first time in any McCain race we can recollect, the usual 20 to 30 percent of Democrats who defect to McCain are now staying home. Today, only nine percent of Democrats are crossing over to McCain while eleven percent of Republicans are crossing over to Obama.”