The CD3 race, 48 hours in

Two days ago, Rep. John Shadegg was the odds-on favorite to keep the 3rd District seat in Republican hands for an umpteenth straight term (when it was the 4th District, it had been in the GOP column since at least the Ford administration). Though opponent Bob Lord - thus far the only Democrat in contention for the seat - has an impressive $500,000 on hand, conventional wisdom dictated that CD3, which voted for President Bush in 2004 with 58% of the vote and has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6 (the highest margin in any of the four contested congressional races this year), would easily stay in Republican hands. 

That certainty was thrown into some doubt with Shadegg's announcement late Monday that he wouldn't be seeking re-election, which took the state and national GOP leadership completely by surprise, has generated an explosion of interest from power players in the district. Suddenly, a safe seat has become a probable hot Republican primary race, assuming that even a few of the numerous potential candidates currently considering a run do, in fact, jump in.

So far, only Paradise Valley Mayor Ed Winkler has officially declared his candidacy, doing so last night before the LD-11 committee meeting. However, over the past two days, four other political leaders have openly stated that they're considering joining Winkler in the ring, and one other is widely believed to be looking very closely at running.

As of today, those openly pondering a run - in order of declared seriousness - are:

- Sean Noble, Shadegg's chief of staff, who was the first to come out as "giving serious consideration" to running. Of course, he was also the first to know there would be something to run for.

- State Sen. Jim Waring (R-Phoenix) is also "serious" in his contemplation of entering the fray. Insiders say he is so serious he is thinking of resigning from the Senate to run full-time...though naturally that remains unconfirmed by Waring himself.

- State House Speaker Jim Weiers (R-Phoenix) is "seriously considering a run" according to the Business Journal of Phoenix.

- State Sen. Pam Gorman (R-Anthem) is only "considering" running, sans amplifier, and is the latest to say so.  

- Treasurer Dean Martin hasn't yet said he'll run, but is apparently speaking with numerous people about the possibility.

Others rumored to be reviewing their options are lawyer Jordan Rose, State Sen. Barbara Leff (R-Paradise Valley)and fmr. State Sen. Minority Leader Tom Patterson, chairman of the Goldwater Institute.